It’s the Geography, Stupid.

Here’s an interesting take on Obama’s problems with poor white voters: his actual problem is with Appalachian voters, many of whom are poor and white. As a geography man, I can’t help but be fascinated by these maps:

Look at the clear swath of strong Clinton support along Appalachia. This theory is working for me

It’s pretty clear where Obama may risk of losing some of our base. In the Appalachain parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky. And while general election polling at this point is imperfect at best, this aggregate map of current polls reflects a similar baseline trend.

For reference as to what’s realistic, here’s a map of the 2004 results:

Let me be clear: I firmly believe that Obama is the better candidate for the party nationwide. He has the potential to bring in young, new and independent voters nationwide and put many states in play that may currently be red on the above map. Notably: Virginia, Nevada, and Montana. His appeal in the west is important to broadening and solidifying our footholds in a fast growing area turning rapidly democratic.

Clinton performs better in Appalachia. I expect either Obama or Clinton will win Pennsylvania. WV and KY is a long shot for either

So, a more nuanced analysis shows that Obama needs to work hard in Ohio and Florida for the general. While he can win the election without either (every Kerry state plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado), these are the states that the primary has shown are willing to elect a Democrat, but not yet comfortable with Obama.

In Ohio, he has trouble winning over poor white Appalachian voters. In Florida, I expect it’s a problem with voters over 65 and perhaps Latinos.

A smart VP choice might help. Or it may simply take massive organization by local Democratic leaders. But Obama, in my mind, has the strong potential to win these states. His weakness with “white, low income, rural voters” is an inexact way of saying Obama does badly in Appalachia. A well defined regional problem is easier to tackle than a abstract racial one.